In this series of op-eds, our car-industry insider will spot trends, give you a taste of upcoming products, and forecast brands' futures. He brings more than two decades of experience working with American and European brands to this endeavor, and will be reporting from the Continent. In order to give honest opinions without worrying about political ramifications at the office, he is keeping his identity a secret. Some say he runs an eel-pie shop in Leeds; that he waxes his cats...oh, you know the deal. Presenting, for the first time, Motive's Oracle.

Do a little experiment for me if you will. The next time you're driving to/from work on any major road or freeway in any metro area, especially in the 'smile' section of America (down the east coast, across the south, and up the west coast), start looking around and see if you can go a minute, one whole minute, without seeing a BMW. I'm betting you won't be able to, as they're absolutely everywhere. In the blink of an eye, they went from being fairly rare, usually driven by enthusiasts with a bit of money, to ubiquitous, driven by everybody with a bit of credit.

I know there are plenty of true BMW lovers, enthusiasts who willingly pay the prices demanded because they cherish the premium experience these cars supply, their combo of tactile feel and luxury no other car maker in the world can duplicate, regardless of how much they've tried over the years. I'm not talking about you. You're just becoming a smaller and smaller piece of any ever-growing pie.

A story: The last two American realtors I dealt with picked me up at the airport in their 5-series estates. Automatic transmissions, of course, because they didn't know how to drive a stick. I asked both which engine they had, and neither had any idea. "Is it the straight six?" I queried. One replied, "Of course. A crooked six would be terrible!" All right, that last bit never happened, but it damn well could have.

There's really nothing wrong with both those ladies and the hundreds of thousands of others who don't really know, or appreciate, just what makes a BMW a BMW. In my extremely small sample size, both of those women had tried BMW because they'd been told the cars hold up well over the long-term. Both had come out of domestic sedans that had worn so cheaply they were embarrassed to transport clients in them, and their cars were nearly worthless upon trade-in. They ended up liking their new cars "quite a bit," hard seats and all.

So in effect, they bought out of disgust with their old cars (to which they were once loyal), not out of any genuine appreciation for the best attributes of BMW. They didn't buy because of an I-6 or a V-8 that sounds stonking at 6000 rpm, or the engineer's obsession with 50/50 weight distribution, or Bauhaus-influenced IPs, or (until recently) understated design, or stealth performance, or a dozen other things I could mention. They bought because of what other people thought of the brand.

Which brings us to status. Many, many people drive BMWs because of the statement they believe it makes about them (this is so self-evidently true that I won't even argue the point, nor bring up the whole "Yuppie" thing from the not-too-distant past). There's nothing wrong with this. Brands matter. If they didn't, the grocery stores would stock nothing but generic or store-label brands, Grey Goose would sell for the same price as Popov, and there wouldn't be people who pay more for a GMC pickup because the Chevy is "just too common."

People communicate things about themselves by the brands they chose and the brands they reject. Think of the people you know that are obsessed with everything Apple. They're probably concerned with the climate crisis and are somewhat interested in organic foods. Pretty good chance they think Obama is the answer. Maybe even an Impeach Bush! bumper sticker on the Prius or Civic. Do I describe someone you know, or am I stereotyping? If I am, where did the stereotype come from? Yeah, brands communicate.

Now a thought experiment: If everybody and their real-estate-selling sister have one, does that make the brand more or less desirous in your eyes? Do you really want the same car as 25 percent of the people on your block, even if it comes from the same manufacturer that creates the M5?

By definition, status decreases as the object/action creating the status becomes common, and in this area BMW has trouble brewing on the horizon. BMW sold just 37,000 cars in the U.S. in 1980 (by the way, Jaguar outsold BMW, Merc, and Volvo that year). Nearly 300,000 moved last year (and Jaguar dropped below 16,000). So BMWs are now as common as Honda Accords. In fact, in the college town where I lived in the States, I'd swear BMW outsells all of GM. Is this status, or groupthink?

And that 300,000 last year was before the 1-series, which, as an enthusiast, I should be very excited about. I am, kinda, but isn't this just getting back to what the 3-series was a couple of generations ago? I was in Frankfurt when the X6 crossover coupe (or is it a coupe crossover?) was unveiled, and it was hard to find anybody who loves this brand excited about this beast. X3 not cheap enough for ya? Just wait for the X1. Thank God positive integers don't allow them to go any lower than that, and that the X7 has been cancelled, but that still leaves holes around the X2 and X4 micro-niches. The minivan — I'm sorry, I meant the "Multi Activity Vehicle" &mdash was killed at the 11th hour. Unfortunately, it has morphed into the upcoming "Progressive Activity Vehicle."

What the hell is going on in Bavaria? Are they determined to be all things to all people? Maybe the "same car, different lengths" strategy that gave the world the excellent and handsome 3-, 5-, and 7-series cars, with a couple of coupes and the very occasional roadster, was too limiting. But an avalanche of products?

So sorry BMW, but it's time for me to move on. I still love you for what the brand stands for, and probably always will, I'm just not in love with you anymore. I'm not interested in such an open relationship. It's got to be a little more special, a little more rare. A tad exclusive.

By contrast, look at Alfa Romeo. I predict Alfa Romeo will be an unqualified U.S. hit in the next decade (in status, not in volume), because it captures a bit of the exclusivity and cognoscenti appeal BMW once had. Of course, BMWs were always a bit more reliable: Think of the guys you knew who told stories of driving old Alfas in college, and always had to park them facing downhill because their starters had burnt up. But they weren't complaining, they were bragging. This is a brand with some real passion.

The 8C Competizione will set the tone and whet appetites when it arrives later this year, but that's only going to be sold in tiny, collector-car numbers, all deep into six figures. No, it's the ones coming after that, starting in 2010, which should cause enthusiasts to stash away a couple of extra bucks. The current 166 is sharp; the upcoming 169 sedan is stunning. More importantly, it's unique. The Brera coupe, Spider, and 159 sedan will all be head-turners in America; even the Mi.To is car-club worthy. When was the last time you did a double take for a non-M BMW? It was for the extremely rare Z8, wasn't it?

So in just a few short years, you'll have some choices. If you want a German car, you can go look at dozens and dozens of Volkswagens, Audis, BMWs, Mercedes, even four or five Porsches. Join the crowd! Get a 3-series. Black or silver, of course. Come on, everybody's doing it! You want to fit in, right? And you know what? Manual transmissions are a pain in traffic! They make talking on a cell phone inconvenient.

If you want the satisfaction of being just a step ahead of the pack, you'll get an Alfa Romeo, and the chances are you won't see another one like it for days, if not weeks. That exclusivity is what builds followings and, ultimately, brands.