For fans of my last column, the one where I said Alfa Romeo has the ability to claim BMW's mantle of exclusive European performance, know that I've reconsidered. BMW has a bigger potential U.S. competitor than Alfa looming on the horizon. BMW needs to realize the serious threat that's coming soon from Pontiac. Yes, that's right: Pontiac.

Pontiac's in metamorphosis, going from a muddled brand position back to what it was in its heyday, when John DeLorean gave enthusiasts a real reason to pick Pontiac over a Chevy, Dodge, Buick, or Plymouth. "Pontiac Excitement" is coming back! It's almost time to "Get in your Pontiac and Ride" once again! The "We Build Excitement" brand is back, baby!

In just a few short years, Pontiac will be a legitimate alternative to BMW, but with a distinctly American feel. An almost exclusive rear-wheel-drive lineup, high-performance engines, superb road handling, striking designs, and highly refined, aesthetically pleasing interiors. Think cars like the Australian-sourced G8 all down the line. Think "BMW on a budget."

All right, I'll stop now. I was actually channeling Bob Lutz circa 2002. Believe it or not, this was the strategy guiding Pontiac product planning just a couple of years ago. It was a settled issue; the only question was how fast they could get there with existing budget constraints. One side of the house preached caution, that the higher costs involved would mean sacrificing too much volume in the short term. The other side urged full-speed ahead, that for the brand to be healthy and profitable in the long term, it needed to get to a desirable, RWD lineup as soon as possible, i.e., make the switch as soon as each model came to the end of its current life-cycle.

All of that's gone now. Solstice and G8 will be the only RWD Pontiacs, and the G8 is beginning to look like it could be a one-and-done, as the future looks bleak for the donor Holden Commodore. Oh well, it was an exciting plan while it lasted.

Pontiac is a victim of an automotive industry turned upside-down. I talk to colleagues around the world and everyone agrees that the business is in a state of upheaval never before seen. The U.S energy shocks of the '70s were tough, but though there were a few scientists talking about the dangers of the coming ice age, nobody was too concerned about carbon dioxide. Now that Al Gore and his ilk have tattooed the words "Climate Crisis" upon our collective consciousness, the industry is principally responsible for killing the planet (unless something is done right away!), so regulations are going to get much tougher. The new fuel economy standards for the U.S. are convoluted and confusing, and will be a major challenge for every manufacturer that wants to sell here. Safety regulations keep escalating. Oil at $140 per barrel doesn't help, and some analysts say $200 wouldn't shock them. And the U.S. market, the profit engine for many manufacturers, is looking like it could finish 2008 down over 4 million units from its peak. All of the above add up to a convulsive, fundamental shift in carmakers' priorities.

The industry must change, and quickly (more so for the Americans, but the Asians and Europeans have plenty of work to do as well). And it's all got to be done during a time when many manufacturers' most profitable vehicles are no longer that, or flat-out sinking like stones. All of the new technologies employed (turbo direct-injection, EVs, diesel-electric hybrids, more HEVs, low-weight/high-strength materials, HCCI, etc.) will be expensive, some very expensive. And they all must be developed and launched at a time when most volume European makes are marginally break-even, and the Detroit 3 are absolutely hemorrhaging cash. Even worse, it's borrowed cash, and they can't go back to the source for more. For a couple of those companies, the sand is quickly flowing through the hourglass, and drastic cost-cutting is required.

General Motors is at the top of the list of companies that are slicing and dicing like line cooks. Expensive programs to give Pontiac uniquely styled, high-performance RWD cars got the ax. Not only is there no money for product development, but the risk of returning to the old "Trans Am" rep was unacceptable when people like Thomas Friedman regularly spout off about how GM is a danger to the national security of the United States. Since GM can't make Pontiac into what it should be, very basic questions are being asked within the towers of the Ren Cen. What's the point of Pontiac in its current iteration? What do we do with it? Can it be based on even sportier styling? (Chevy swears it has this coming.) What about European looks and feel? (Saturn and Saab should have those covered, and all future cars/crossovers are going to get some Euro feel, one way or another.) There really are no easy answers.

So what is the point of Pontiac going forward?

If a brand can't be explained to someone who doesn't follow the industry in a simple sentence, one that easily comes to mind, it has no clear reason for being (or is very new). If a non-enthusiast friend of yours is in the market, and asks, "So what is Honda/BMW/Toyota/Subaru/Lexus/Scion/Smart/Mini/VW all about?" you can pretty simply explain the brand. What do you say when they ask about Mitsubishi (outside of Japan)? Sorry to offend you Evo-fetish people, but what's the point of Mitsu? If you say performance (granted, other than Evo), or high quality, or great design, resale value, durability, or fuel efficiency, you're either not being honest or accurate. What's Pontiac going to be?

Let's back up a couple of steps.

GM desperately needs fewer, stronger dealers in the right locations — ones that commit completely to the success of GM brands — and getting there is arduous. The channel strategy is currently the best option, and Pontiac-Buick-GMC will be the second biggest volume channel after Chevrolet. Why those three together? Because in major markets, Chevrolet should be able to do Toyota-level volume on its own, and Saturn needs to stay exclusive to keep the unique sales/service experience intact. Where the volume can't justify exclusive stores, Chevrolet and Saturn will pair up. Cadillac, Saab, and Hummer (sorry, make that Cadillac and Saab — there's no work being done on any future Hummer) will make up the "premium" channel. That leaves Pontiac, Buick, and GMC, none of which can realistically move enough metal as a stand-alone for a dealer to profitably survive. It's not a perfect plan, but it's the best one GM can put forward at this time.

GM's been claiming for many years that GMC will soon have unique products versus Chevy. It's never happened, and it won't start now. Buick is doing very well in China, and that's where the brand's focus will stay. If the cars designed for China happen to catch on in the United States, more's the better. Throw in three or so Pontiac models and you got yourself a bona fide sales channel! At least one that can stay in business so GM can keep from losing the volume that eliminating brands always entails. Just as importantly, it keeps the dealer lawsuits at bay. (How many billions did killing Oldsmobile end up costing them?) If and when GM ever gets healthy and wealthy again, they'll revisit these problems. In the meantime, they have much more pressing concerns.

So Pontiac's reason for being is... to support the Pontiac-Buick-GMC sales channel, which moves essential volume for GM and keeps most dealers from suing for crazy money. Hell of a compelling sales pitch, eh?

So bypass your next BMW ("The Ultimate Driving Machine"), and get a Pontiac ("An Important Contributor To A Secondary Sales Channel").

So no "BMW on a budget." More like "Pontiac's version of..." — as in the next G6 being Pontiac's version of the Chevy Malibu/Saturn Aura/Saab 9-3 (but Pontiac gets the sporty coupe!), the Vibe being Pontiac's version of the Toyota Matrix, the Solstice as their version of the Saturn Sky/Opel GT Roadster. While there won't be any unique powertrains or performance packages, rest assured they'll all have that distinctive twin-port grille, and other Pontiac "brand cues." Design has an extremely heavy load to carry.

DeLorean must be spinning in his grave.